Hotspots and coldspots of population growth/decline in relative terms between 2020 and 2022
The current physiognomy and problems of rural and urban territories in Spain are directly related to the demographic processes linked to the rural exodus of the 1960s. In the year 2020, a new problem and/or conditioning factor arose, COVID-19, which has modified dynamics, routines, and aspects of the daily life of the population. The objectives of this research are to check whether there are differences in the effect of COVID-19 between urban and rural municipalities and, in turn, to analyse the demographic dynamics of the population between 2020 and 2022, as well as territorial distribution patterns. To this end, population data were extracted from the Population Register and Residential Variation data for the period 2010 and 2022 and demographic and statistical calculations (Student’s t-test and Pearson’s correlation) were carried out. Among the main results, it is observed that COVID-19 has less of an effect in Spanish rural areas. Moreover, these areas show a positive demographic trend for the period 2020–2022. Population growth has had a direct influence on the improvement of demographic data, although with differences according to autonomous communities. This fact represents a break in the trend in rural areas, but is beginning to show signs of exhaustion and a return to the pre-pandemic trend.
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Conclusions
The study and analysis of the population dynamics and demographic indicators of the different Spanish municipalities and their differential behaviour between the pre-pandemic and post-confinement periods require greater attention from the academic, political, and institutional world at different levels. For this reason, this article has analysed the impact that COVID-19 has had on the level of infections and deaths in different Spanish autonomous communities, according to the type of municipality (rural/non-rural). On the other hand, the effect of the pandemic on the population trend in rural areas was studied, as well as its impact on some typical demographic indicators of rurality (sex ratio, dependency, and ageing). The results obtained highlight a change in population behaviour in Spain as a whole, especially between 2020 and 2022, where there was a loss or stagnation of population in urban areas and a gain in rural areas. However, this study highlights that this process is beginning to show signs of exhaustion and a return to pre-pandemic population trends is in sight, albeit in a more attenuated form.
Thus, in demographic terms, rural areas have experienced years of population growth linked to COVID-19. The fear of contagion, the search for large and uncongested spaces, the mythification of rural life, the spread of teleworking, and the improvement in telecommunications have been a spur to the constant decline in population in rural municipalities. However, the authors do not consider COVID-19 to be the main cause, although it has contributed to the rural renaissance, as it has accelerated cultural trends already existing in society [48,49,50]. This change in trend appears to have been merely cyclical, as the 2022 data begin to show signs of a return to pre-pandemic population dynamics. During 2022, rural areas have experienced lower population growth and even decreases, although not to pre-pandemic levels, while intermediate and urban areas have once again experienced increases in their population. This fact is also beginning to undermine the good results that could be seen in population growth and, therefore, in the demographic indicators for the 2020–2022 period. The return to normality, the greater cultural and leisure offers in the cities, and the greater presence of work/academic activities is causing the population to return to urban or peri-urban areas and to leave remote rural areas.
Consequently, this study shows the need to continue developing rural areas, which have been seen as useful and necessary for the population in the current scenario of the health crisis. It is thus necessary to continue working on improving the provision of services and infrastructures that improve the quality of life of the local population and attract future inhabitants. In this sense, the existence of good internet connectivity is fundamental for the development of these municipalities, thus the digitalisation of the rural world is a key factor in the evolution and future of these areas, especially because of the normalisation, if not generalisation, of teleworking. All of these actions are important to take advantage of the brake that the pandemic has put on the decline in population in these territories, as everything points to a return to pre-pandemic dynamics.
Finally, future research should analyse whether the accessibility study carried out by the Spanish Government has a clear relationship with the demographic growth that occurred during the pandemic in rural municipalities, as well as analyse the population evolution of these areas in the coming years.
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